Prior To Sniper Bets
It’s been a year since Sniper Bets started proofing their lay bet selections to Racing-Index and they sit at the top of the 12 month comparison table.
Prior to setting up the Sniper Bets site, bets had been proofed as Betfair Humanoid for 3 months. Tomorrow I’ll post an interview with the man behind Sniper Bets, in which he tells me why he changed the name of the service.
Proofing went well as Betfair Humanoid and in the 3 month period up until the end of April he made a profit of +9.97 points based upon 1 point liability at Betfair SP.
The table below, shows an additional +1.27 points profit made in May, but the selection Oscar Rose was proofed to both Betfair Humanoid and the Sniper Bets, during the crossover, so I’ll only include it when I talk about the Sniper Bets results.
You’ll see from the graph that on 11th April the service reached a peak of +18.91 points profit, before tailing off during the remainder of April.
Start Again From Scratch
The Racing-Index proofing rules are such that we don’t allow results to be transferred between services, so when the service switched over to the Sniper Bets site, proofing had to start again from scratch.
Things didn’t start well for the first couple of months as Sniper Bets. May was a losing month, which the Sniper puts down to the fact he was on a one month trip to South Korea and the 8 hours timezone difference played havoc with his attention span. Results were up and down for a few weeks after that and reached a low point of -8.81 points around the middle of the July.
However the next 3 months saw a real purple patch, where Sniper Bets made just shy of +50 points profits, taking the overall profit up to +41.65 points by mid October.
Things then fluctuated again over the following 3 months, dipping to +26.75 points profit early in the new year, but since then there has been a steady increase in profits for the service and as I write Sniper Bets is showing +50.16 points profit.
The above chart shows the importance of taking a long term view when following a tipster service.
Combined Profit of +60 Points
Adding the profits proofed as Betfair Humanoid together with those of Sniper Bets gives +60.13 points, based upon 1 point risked liability per bet over a 15 month period. In backing terms that may not sound a lot, but in lay bet terms it’s pretty impressive.
You may have seen other sites claiming bigger lay bets profit, but most of them quote profit based upon 1 point staked per bet, rather than 1 point risked. If you’re not sure what the difference is, here’s an example.
If you laid a horse at odds of 4/1 (5.0) for 1 point stake, your total risk (if the horse wins) would be 4 points. With 1 point risk, you’d stake 0.25 points, so that you’d only lose 1 point if the horse wins.
If we look back at the 2 losing periods I mention above; in the first the Profit dropped from a high of 18.91 points to 9.97 points at the end of Betfair Humanoid proofing (-8.94 points). Then at the start of Sniper Bets proofing the profit dipped to -8.81 points. If we add those 2 together we get a overall loss of 17.75 points.
The second losing period was from a high of +41.65 points in mid October to +26.75 points in early January, a loss of -14.9 points.
So during the 15 months that the lay bets have been proofed to Racing-Index, the biggest drop in the betting bank has been 17.75 points. Which means you could have safely followed the selections with a 20 point betting bank. If you had done so, you’d have made 3x the betting bank over the 15 months. In other words, if you’d started with a betting bank of £600 you could have risked £30 per bet and made a profit of £1,800.
That would have been a pretty aggressive staking plan, but if you’d been more cautious and setup a 30 point betting bank, you’d still have made 2x the betting bank. From a starting bank of £600 you could have risked £20 per bet and made a profit of £1,200.
An even more cautious betting bank of 50 points, would have doubled the betting bank over the past 12 months, which is still good going.
Looking more in depth at the Sniper Bet lays; there’s been 759 bets of which 433 have been successful, giving a 57% success rate. 89.5% of the bets have been in the not to place market and they’ve accounted for +48.07 points of the profit. There’s been 80 lays in the win market of which 48 have been beaten, providing +2.09 points profit.
As with any service there have been losing periods along the way, but with the high success rate of the selections, loses have been kept to a minimum. There’s only been 2 losing months, during the past year (3 out of 15 if you include the Betfair Humanoid lays).
If you’re interested in joining Sniper Bets you can try the service free for 7 days, after that you can choose to either subscribe weekly at £8 per week, monthly for £25 a month or half yearly for £120 every 6 months.
18+ only. begambleaware.org.
To find out more about Sniper Bets, don’t forget to check back here tomorrow, when I’ll be posting my interview with the man behind the service.