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| Archive : 2006 | 2005 | Ex-Proofing | |
ESP Explained
When comparing results of different tipsters it's not always easy to assess which has achieved the best performance. For example if we look at the following 2 imaginary tipster services:
Tipster A - returned 20 points profit
Tipster B - returned 30 points profit
Which would you say is the better tipster?
Most likely you'd say Tipster B, but what if Tipster A had given out 50 selections, while Tipster B had given out 100, which would you now say was the best?
If you had bet £10 on each selection for Tipster A you'd have staked a total of £500 and would have returned a profit of £200. Whereas if you'd have staked £5 on each selection for Tipster B you'd have again staked a total of £500, but you're profit would only be £150.
This is referred to as Profit on Turnover (POT) or Return on Investment (ROI) and is usually shown as a percentage. i.e.
Tipster A achieves a profit of £200 on Turnover of £500 giving
a POT of 40%
Tipster B achieves a profit of £150 on Turnover of £500 giving
a POT of 30%
So it now looks like Tipster A maybe the best to follow, but what if Tipster A achieved a strike rate of 20%, while Tipster B achieved 30%. You may now be willing to stake a bigger percentage of your betting bank on Tipster B's selections than you would on Tipster A's. So now which tipster produces the best performance?
Our solution is to use ESP
No we're not using Extra-Sensory Perception, ESP stands for Estimated Staking Profit.
To calculate ESP we use Strike Rate and Profit on Turnover to determine a suitable level stake that could have been used from a betting bank of 1000 points. That stake is then used to see what level of profit would have been achieved.
Therefore a service achieving an ESP of 1000 points would have doubled the initial betting bank over the period shown. A service achieving 500 points would have increased the betting bank by 50% etc.
The more selections a service has the more accurate the ESP figure is likely to be, so it's probably best to ignore figures for services that appear high in the listings, but have had very few selections.
Within the top 10 comparison tables tipsters are excluded that have proofed less than 30 selections for the 6 months comparison, 15 selections for 3 months and 10 selections for the 1 month table.
Within the full lists all services are included, but any service that has proofed less than an average of 1 selection per week, is listed separately at the foot of the table.
Bear in mind the ESP figure shows the past profit that could have been achieved during the period shown. It does not give any indication or guarantee regarding the future profitability of following the tipsters selections.
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