Dr Peter May Jumps Ratings Service provides speed ratings for National Hunt racing on a daily basis, from the end August through to the end April. The ratings are generated by a suite of neural networks, and are supplied together with a brief form guide and an odds line. They are emailed to subscribers the day before racing and can also be downloaded from his website.
Here’s an example, from last NH season, of what the ratings look like for a typical race:
In order to help users develop their own systems, using the ratings, Peter provides a National Hunt System Analyser that is free to download from his site. The analyser includes past ratings from seasons 2007/08 through to 2016/17.
Today sees the start of the new season for Peter’s NH Speed ratings and he sent out a screenshot to show how they performed in National Hunt races last year. The figures shown are based upon betting exchange prices. Note he doesn’t provide ratings for NH flat races.
You’ll see from the above tables that individually the ratings made a profit of 1p for every £1 bet, which over the course of 2835 bets would have equated to 28.35 points profit.
You’ll notice that in addition to the ratings, Peter also provides an odds line. Again looking at the above tables you’ll see that if you only bet the top rated runner when it is also shown as the favourite on his odds line (the table on the right), the profit increased to 12p for every £1 bet, which over the course of 871 bets would have equated to 104.52 points profit.
One area where the ratings didn’t appear to do so well is in Handicap Hurdle races; Even when combining with the Odds live they still showed a loss of 11p in the pound. If we run those races through his NH System Analyser, we see that overall they’ve made a loss of 3p in the pound, but more worryingly that made a loss of over 13p in the pound in 4 of the last 5 years.
If we take out the Handicap Hurdle races from last years results it would increase the profit to 129 points with a win rate of 44%.
Throughout the National Hunt season I’ll be keeping an eye on how the ratings perform. I’ll be looking at all selections that are top rated and forecast favourite on Peter’s odds line. Given how the handicap hurdlers have performed over the past 5 years, I’ll exclude them from the bets. I’m not sure what Peter does when 2 horses are joint top rated, but for my analysis if a horse is equal top rated and odds line favourite, I’ll include it. Similarly if a horse is top rated and joint favourite on the odds line I’ll also include it.
For obvious reasons I’ll not be able to show the runners on the blog prior to the race, but will report back at regular intervals throughout the season. I’ll show performance based upon Betfair SP, as well as bookmaker BOG prices.