BOG v Betfair Prices – VRUN Update 7

In the last update I mentioned April is notoriously a difficult month for betting and so it has proved so far for VRUN, if you’d been backing the selections at SP or even BSP. However based upon bookmakers best odds guaranteed prices they’ve managed to break even.

Over the past 2 weeks at SP they’ve recorded a loss of -13 points, at BSP a loss of -9.4 points, BEP (Betfair Early Prices) -3.5 points and BOG 0 points, which just illustrates how important it is to obtain the best price possible, to limit your losses during a lean spell, as well as increasing your profits, when results are going well.

It’s also interesting to note that results based upon taking an early Betfair price are now out performing betting at Betfair SP. Also the profits from taking BOG prices are more than double that of taking a price on Betfair.

Interesting Observation

On the results below you’ll see I’ve highlighted some of the BOG prices in red. These are where the odds drifted in the market and the SP was returned higher than the odds taken. An interesting point, out of 322 bets so far during the trial there have been 86 bets where the SP has been returned higher than the odds taken. Of those 86 only 3 bets have won (8/1, 6/1 and evens).

If you’d waited until the start of the race and not backed any of the selections where the SP was higher than the Best Odds available earlier, you’d have save £680 to £10 stakes. Therefore taking this approach and placing Bets at BSP just before the race would currently be producing by far the best returns of all (nearly double the BOG profits). The downside of this approach is you’d need to be in a position to place bets just before the odds (unless there’s a bot that could do it). I’ll keep a eye on this, as I continue the odds comparison.

results7

chart7

* Slight adjustment to the figures from last month, as I’ve corrected the spreadsheet where it was previously showing a £10 loss for one selection that had been a non runner.
** I didn’t check early prices on 3rd April, as the selections were proofed late and I’d assumed there were no bets that day. As it happens all 6 bets lost, so it made no difference to the figures.

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