BOG v Betfair Prices – VRUN Final Update

The end of April saw the completion of my comparison of Best Odds Guaranteed v Betfair prices, using the VRUN selections. During the comparison there were 450 selections in total, of which 7 were non runners, which left 107 winners from 443 bets. If you’d have staked £10 on each of the selections, at starting price, you’d have made a loss of £245.46, but hopefully by now you’re not simply taking SP for any of your bets. When there is far better odds to be had, there is simply no excuse for betting at SP, as the chart below shows.

profit-loss

So where should you be placing your bets and what odds should you be taking?

In my comparison study you’ll see that backing the same selections, but betting at Betfair SP, turned the £245.46 loss into a profit of £62.30. This was improved upon by taking the odds on offer on Betfair at the time of placing the bet, boosting the profit to £163.00. But by far the best option was taking the best odds available from the bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed prices, where the profit increased to £410.01.

chart-final

A few things to note about the results:

  • In order to obtain the best BOG prices, it’s important you have betting accounts with a number of different bookmakers. See our List of Best Odds Guaranteed Bookmakers and open accounts with as many as your betting bank will permit. Spreading your bets across multiple bookmakers will also reduce the risk of any particular bookmaker limiting the size of your bets, or withdrawing BOG from your account;
  • During the comparison test VRUN didn’t have any really big odds winners. If they had of done the profit backing at BSP could have looked very different. For example on 14th April last year Ocean Venture was a winner at SP of 25/1 and BSP of 62.55. I don’t know what BOG prices were available early for the horse, but it’s highly likely they were no where near the BSP return. So despite BSP profits being well below BOG in the comparison it’s likely it’ll provide the best option when betting at bigger odds;
  • For Betfair early prices I always took the price where there was at least £10 available to back. In practice, with a little bit of extra work, these figures could very easily be improved upon, by asking for a price on the selection rather than simply taking the odds on offer. This would’ve made a significant different to the overall BEP profit.

Selections for the final update period.

results-final

To see a full list of the VRUN selections during the trial see VRUN proofed selections 11th February to 30th April 2016

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